Sell in May - User Documentation

Table of Contents

Overview

Sell in May is a professional market analysis application that helps you understand potential future price behavior of stocks by comparing current patterns to historically similar situations. Unlike simple charting apps, Sell in May is regime-aware—it recognizes that markets behave differently in different conditions and only shows you patterns from similar market environments.

Key Features

  • Regime-aware pattern matching from 10+ years of historical data
  • Optional AI-powered forecasting with probabilistic scenarios
  • Fundamentals analysis with DCF calculator
  • Peer correlation heatmap with configurable peer list
  • Risk & performance metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, VaR, beta)
  • On-device technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, ATR, OBV)
  • Macro-economic context with World Bank and IMF fallbacks
  • 100% on-device processing for complete privacy
  • Works offline after initial data download
  • Professional-grade technical analysis tools

Getting Started

First Launch

When you first open Sell in May, the app will:

Note: The initial data download may take a few minutes. Once complete, the app works offline for previously analyzed stocks.

Selecting a Stock

To analyze a stock:

  1. Tap the search or symbol entry field
  2. Enter a stock symbol (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, TSLA)
  3. The app will fetch current and historical data for that stock
  4. Analysis results will appear automatically

Selecting Market Context

You can also select one or more market indexes (like S&P 500, Nasdaq) to provide context for regime detection. The app uses these to understand the broader market environment.

Analyzing Stocks

What the App Does

When you select a stock, Sell in May:

  1. Detects the current market regime - Classifies volatility, trend, and risk sentiment
  2. Finds similar historical patterns - Searches 30+ years of data for price curves that look similar under comparable market conditions
  3. Generates probabilistic forecasts - Shows you what happened after those similar patterns, giving you a range of possible outcomes
  4. Provides confidence metrics - Tells you how reliable the matches are

Understanding the Analysis View

The main analysis screen shows:

Understanding Results

Pattern Matches

Pattern matches show you historical price curves that are similar to the current situation. Each match includes:

Tip: Patterns with similar market regimes are more relevant. The app gives these patterns a similarity boost.

Probabilistic Forecasts

Instead of giving you a single prediction, Sell in May shows you a range of possible outcomes:

Example: If the forecast shows:
• 25th percentile: -5% (25% chance of losing 5% or more)
• Median: +3% (50% chance of gaining 3% or more)
• 75th percentile: +8% (25% chance of gaining 8% or more)

This means there's a 50% chance of gains between -5% and +8%, with the most likely outcome around +3%.

Confidence Metrics

The app provides several confidence indicators:

Important: Higher confidence doesn't guarantee accuracy. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always use this as one tool among many in your investment research.

What's New in This Update

Version 1.0.4 adds powerful new analysis tools to help you make better investment decisions:

Fundamentals Analysis

View key company statistics and estimate intrinsic value with an interactive DCF calculator.

Peer Correlation

Visualize how your stock correlates with peers like SPY, QQQ, and IWM on a heatmap.

Risk Metrics

Track return, volatility, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, max drawdown, and VaR.

Technical Indicators

Monitor RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, ATR, and OBV—all computed on-device.

Fundamentals Analysis

The Fundamentals card provides key company statistics and an interactive DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) calculator to estimate intrinsic value.

Key Statistics

The app displays essential fundamentals for any company:

DCF Calculator

The DCF calculator estimates intrinsic value using a two-stage model:

Output

The DCF calculator outputs:

Tip: Adjust the growth rate, terminal growth rate, and discount rate to see how different assumptions affect intrinsic value.

External Resources

Access external resources directly from the app:

Peer Correlation

The Peer Correlation card shows how your selected stock's returns correlate with a configurable list of peer symbols. Understanding correlation helps you:

Default Peer List

The default peer list includes major market indexes and sector ETFs:

Understanding Correlation

Correlation values range from -1 to +1:

Example: If your stock has a 0.85 correlation with QQQ, it means when QQQ goes up 1%, your stock tends to go up 0.85%. A correlation of -0.3 would mean your stock tends to move opposite to QQQ.

Heatmap Visualization

The detail view shows a color-coded heatmap:

Lookback Period

Configure how far back to calculate correlations:

Risk & Performance Metrics

The Risk Metrics card provides comprehensive risk and performance analytics versus a configurable benchmark (default: SPY).

Return Metrics

Volatility Metrics

Risk-Adjusted Metrics

Drawdown Metrics

Beta

Benchmark: Compare your stock's risk/return profile against a benchmark like SPY, QQQ, or any other symbol. Beta measures how much your stock moves relative to the benchmark.

Understanding Metrics

Sharpe Ratio: A Sharpe of 1.0 means you earned 1 unit of return per unit of risk. Generally, higher is better.

Sortino Ratio: Only penalizes downside volatility, so it's better for portfolios concerned with protecting capital.

Beta: Beta > 1 means more volatile than benchmark; Beta < 1 means less volatile.

VaR Interpretation

Value-at-Risk answers: "What's the most I could lose?"

Example: 95% Daily VaR of 2% means there's a 5% chance you could lose more than 2% on any given day. 99% VaR of 3% means there's only a 1% chance of losing more than 3%.

Lookback Period

Configure the lookback for calculations:

Technical Indicators

The Technical Indicators card displays popular technical analysis metrics, all computed on-device from OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Measures the magnitude and speed of price changes. Scale: 0-100.

The app uses Wilder smoothing for RSI calculation.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Trend-following momentum indicator showing the relationship between two moving averages.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility bands placed above and below a moving average.

Interpretation: Price near upper band may indicate overbought; price near lower band may indicate oversold. "Squeeze" (narrow bands) often precedes significant moves.

ATR (Average True Range)

Measures market volatility. Represents the average range over N periods.

Example: ATR of 2.5 means the stock typically moves $2.50 per day. Use ATR to set stop-loss distances (e.g., 2x ATR for stop).

OBV (On-Balance Volume)

Cumulative volume indicator that adds/subtracts volume based on price direction.

Interpretation: OBV rising with price rising = healthy uptrend. OBV falling with price rising = divergence (potential reversal).
Important: Technical indicators are not predictive signals. They describe past price behavior. Always use multiple indicators and fundamental analysis for investment decisions.

Market Regime Detection

Sell in May automatically classifies the current market environment across three dimensions:

Volatility

Trend

Risk Sentiment

Why This Matters: Markets behave very differently in high volatility, risk-off environments versus low volatility, risk-on environments. By matching patterns from similar regimes, the app provides more relevant historical comparisons.

Macro-Economic Context (Optional)

Sell in May can integrate Federal Reserve economic data to provide deeper context about the broader economy. This feature is optional and requires a free FRED API key.

What is FRED?

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) is a database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis containing thousands of economic indicators. When enabled, Sell in May uses this data to:

Setting Up FRED Integration

  1. Get a free API key from fred.stlouisfed.org
  2. Open Sell in May Settings
  3. Enter your FRED API key
  4. The app will begin downloading economic indicators
Note: The app works perfectly without a FRED API key. You'll still get regime detection based on market volatility (VIX), but without the additional macro-economic context.

World Bank & IMF Fallbacks

When FRED data is unavailable for certain indicators (CPI, unemployment), the app automatically falls back to alternate sources:

The fallback priority is: FRED → World Bank → IMF

Tip: You can enable or disable World Bank and IMF fallbacks independently in Settings. This ensures you get macro data even when FRED returns no data for a requested date.

Economic Indicators Used

When FRED is enabled, the app tracks:

Note: World Bank and IMF provide CPI and unemployment only. Other high-frequency indicators (Treasury yields, yield curve, breakeven, TED, HY credit, fed funds, sentiment) only come from FRED.

Macro Regimes

The app classifies the economy into five regimes:

Settings & Configuration

Analysis Parameters

Sell in May offers 20+ configurable parameters to customize your analysis:

Peer Correlation

Risk Metrics

Macro Data (Optional)

Data Refresh

You can manually refresh market data or configure automatic background updates. The app caches data locally, so you can analyze stocks offline after the initial download.

Display Options

Privacy & Data

🔒 Complete Privacy

All analysis runs on your device. Your data never leaves your iPhone.

  • No cloud backend
  • No user accounts
  • No data collection
  • No tracking or analytics
  • No sharing with third parties

What Data is Stored?

The app only stores:

The app does not store:

Internet Usage

The app only uses the internet to:

Once data is downloaded, the app works completely offline for previously analyzed stocks.

Data Sources

Market data comes from free, public APIs:

Sell in May - Professional Market Analysis

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